PLA Hedge Math Methodology

Direct answer: The original stake, odds, line, potential profit, and potential return remain fixed even when the live market changes.

PLA begins with the wager the user saved. It does not recalculate the original payout using current odds. For a parlay, completed legs remain settled and unresolved legs remain tied to the original ticket. The protection calculation then uses a separate current opposite offer.

Direct answer: The profit multiplier converts the listed American odds into profit earned per dollar of protection stake.

• For positive odds +A: profit multiplier = A ÷ 100.
• For negative odds -A: profit multiplier = 100 ÷ A.

At +120, each $1 of stake earns $1.20 in profit if the protection wager wins. At -150, each $1 of stake earns about $0.6667 in profit.

Direct answer: PLA subtracts losing stakes and adds winning profit; it never compares gross payouts as if they were net profit.

Net if original wins = original potential profit − protection stake.

Net if protection wins = protection profit − original stake.

Total exposure = original stake + protection stake.

Upside sacrificed = original potential profit − net if original wins.

For a $50 hedge at +120 against a $110 original stake:

• Protection profit: $50 × 1.20 = $60.
• Net if original wins: $100 − $50 = +$50.
• Net if protection wins: $60 − $110 = -$50.
• Total exposure: $110 + $50 = $160.

Direct answer: Original Stake Protection solves for a protection profit that offsets the original loss on the covered opposite outcome.

At +120, the protection stake required to earn $110 is:

$110 ÷ 1.20 = $91.67

PLA labels this objective only when the weaker covered final net falls within the production Original Stake Protection tolerance. A formula that misses the qualification band must not be displayed as Break Even.

Direct answer: PLA converts the sportsbook’s displayed cash-out return into actual profit and uses that profit as a benchmark.

If a $110 wager has a $116 cash-out return, the cash-out profit is $6. The system can compare that immediate +$6 floor with Hold, Loss Reduction, Original Stake Protection, Maximum-Upside Floor, and any qualifying positive-profit setup.

A self-directed hedge is not automatically better. It can require more capital, remain exposed until settlement, or fail if the sportsbook does not accept the exact stated odds and stake.

Direct answer: A balanced stake equalizes the two covered nets; it qualifies as Guaranteed Profit only when both are positive after every included stake.

Using the example above, let the protection stake equal h:

$100 − h = 1.20h − $110

The balanced stake is approximately $95.45. The net is approximately +$4.55 under either explicitly covered spread outcome.

Conditional mathematical guarantee: The bettor must place the exact recommended wagers before the market changes; the sportsbook must accept the stated odds and stakes; and no wager may be voided, regraded, limited, rejected, partially accepted, or settled under different rules. This does not predict which team will cover.

Direct answer: Correct arithmetic is necessary but not sufficient.

PLA also verifies the exact market, complementary settlement coverage, offer freshness, game timing, possession and context, stake limits, exposure caps, and whether acting is better than $0. A spread hedge that leaves a double-loss range is incomplete. A protection offer that arrives too early may remain Watch. A stronger original position can move Actionable back to Hold.